I own mutual funds and "thinking" that the stock market was due for
a "pullback" correction if you will sold my equities to cash on Friday.
Then of course today I being in cash missed what would have yielded me a one day 2% return? So how do you time the stock market?
The stock market is always about timing but is unpredictable. It is not an exact science, sometimes it can be pure luck.
6 Responses to “How can I time the stock market?”
Place your comment
Please fill your data and comment below.
You can look back in history for the trend of this type market. What happened then? However since this is a first since the great depression, there is no trend to follow or to predict a out come. Anyway what you would do for the question is look at trends of the same time of years of the current decade. You can then add and divide to find an average trend.
References :
As you just discovered, you can’t.
Even the biggest experts don’t try to time the market.
Look at GM. If you bought it 12 months ago, your investment would have nearly quadrupled in 12 months.
But did anybody have the nerve?
Until we see real reform of the financial sector, the stock market will continue to languish.
References :
The stock market is always about timing but is unpredictable. It is not an exact science, sometimes it can be pure luck.
References :
http://www.etftips.com
short term the market is random and research has proven that you won’t do any better if you just selected stocks by throwing darts on a wall (filled with your stock names). It is however possible to identify herd psychology using technical analysis which simply tells you what the herd thinks about a stock.
References :
http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/Technical-analysis-indicators.html
Oh if anyone knew that answer. I gave up trying to do it on my own. For about the past two months, I’ve been using the a.V.a. investing model at http://www.knoxhillstocks.com . I’ve seen some nice returns on a very small initial investment.
They offer a 30-day free trial for you to test the waters. This is definitely worth looking at if for nothing but the free trial.
References :
Your time frame is too short. Use the fed funds rate being lowered as the time to get out of stocks and into cash. That would have been around September 2007.
You can use a higher low on a weekly chart as the time to move from cash to stock. That would have been July 2009.
If you are worried about another downturn while the rate is so low, you can watch for a lower high on a weekly chart.
Don’t trade long term money on a short term basis. You’ll get a nervous twitch.
References :
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/statistics/dlyrates/fedrate.html